Battle of Pokrovsk: no encirclement, Ukraine’s defense is holding its ground

GUR special forces insertion into the northern industrial zone of Pokrovsk via U.S.-made UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters wasn’t a political gesture, but a military necessity of a high-tech battle in dense urban areas.

In recent weeks, the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk has really become the absolute epicenter of the Great War frontline. The fiercest battles are ongoing in this sector, and the public discourse has exploded with reports of “almost full encirclement”, “cauldron” and “imminent loss of the city”. Why some media are so greedily picking up, writing and publishing such things is a subject for a separate discussion. In the meanwhile, the Ukrainian war command says the situation is “dynamic but controllable” and announces the start of an unprecedented special operation.

So, what is really happening in the city, what is Ukraine responding to the enemy with, is the situation a stalemate, and what should we prepare for?

Here Ukrinform is analyzing this together with military analysts.

“Vinaigrette” instead of “cauldron”: what is (not) happening in Pokrovsk

The first and main question that needs to be answered is: is Pokrovsk really encircled, and is there a point in defending it further? Despite the panic sentiments circulating across social networks and the victorious reports of Russian “military heroes”, experts call for cautious optimism.

Oleksandr Kovalenko, a military columnist at “Information Resistance” group categorically refutes the claims about the encirclement: “If you look at the map, anyone with at least a basic knowledge of military affairs will say: there is no encirclement there. But the situation is really challenging. The Russian occupiers continue to infiltrate their units into the city, and some of them managed to establish a presence in the central part of Pokrovsk, in particular in the area of ​​the Central Market, on Mykola Lysenko and Volonterska streets. From there, they attempted to advance towards Zaliznychna Street. It is in this area where the enemy has set up several entrenched positions.”

What is happening in the city is not a classic occupation or even a stable front line. According to Kovalenko, it is more of a chaotic urban battle in a huge “gray zone”.

“If you look at Pokrovsk as a whole, the city now resembles a large “gray spot”. Why gray? Because there are battles ongoing in most areas, Russian sabotage and reconnaissance groups (SRG) are working, but there are no positions being held securely and consistently. The DeepState map, basically, shows the current situation in the city quite objectively. Instead, Russian sources publish maps that have little in common with reality. Wherever their SRGs arrive, they immediately mark this area as a “zone under their control”. But this group may no longer be there in an hour - our forces will eliminate it. However, this red spot still remains on Russian maps, creating the illusion of an “advancement”, the analyst explains.

As a matter of fact, most of Pokrovsk is teeming with sabotage groups, but the city is not occupied. Kovalenko clarifies that Russian infiltrators have established a strong presence mainly the southern part of the city (the Lazurny, Pivdenny, Troyanda, and Leontovychi microdistricts), while in the Durnyak, Sobachivka, Pervomaika, and Rih districts, and clashes are constantly occurring without stable control by either side.

Pavlo Lakiychuk, head of security programs at the Center for Global Studies “Strategy XXI,” shares this opinion, choosing an even more vivid metaphor: “Pokrovsk is a vinaigrette. Currently, both our forces and the enemy’s forces are actually mixed there. There is no continuous line of defense there, and accordingly, no continuous logistics.”

This “vinaigrette” means that logistics are complicated for either of the sides. “Our forces are not surrounded, but the enemy remotely controls our logistics using largely drones, and this greatly complicates our work. On the other hand, our Defense Forces are destroying the Russian logistics in the same way. Let’s put it this way: the strikes are targeting logistics of both sides, there are currently much more of them than logistics can handle,” Lakiychuk notes.

He adds that the military significance of Pokrovsk has changed to a degree, but its political significance has skyrocketed, this because the Russian war command purportedly lied to Putin about the “successes.”

“A month ago, Putin’s military reported that Pokrovsk had been taken. Putin was boasting this in conversations with European politicians, with Americans, with Trump personally. The political significance of Pokrovsk itself is not falling, but rather growing. The enemy desperately needs to demonstrate at least some success,” Lakiychuk believes.

Against the backdrop of these emotional swings, military expert Denys Popovych calls for restraint: “Despite the reports of Pokrovsk being practically lost – coming from renowned and respected commentators – I would urge not to rush to conclusions and ungrounded expectations. Yes, I too was among those who said that Pokrovsk could fall if the trend that existed a week ago persists. But the situation is developing. We are watching how the Defense Forces are acting, and this give hope for a change in trends. Let’s wait and watch how events will develop. However, I have no reason yet to expect that our forces are going to leave Pokrovsk.”

So, the city is not lost. Oleksandr Kovalenko concludes: “The situation is indeed extremely tense, but it has not yet reached the point where we can say that all is lost... It is definitely too early to talk about a stalemate. The fighting continues, the Ukrainian defense is holding its ground.”

Infiltration tactics: how the enemy changed its tactics, and what makes it effective (so far)

Pokrovsk is not surrounded, but why then is the situation so difficult and how did the Russians manage to enter the city? The answer lies in the change in Russian tactics and the huge concentration of enemy forces.

Pokrovsk accounts for almost a third of all combat clashes on the front line, and about a half of Russian precision guided bomb attacks occuring in this sector, according to President Volodymyr Zelensky. Defense and security analyst Oleksandr Musienko estimates the number of Russian troops deployed to the area as follows: "Approximately 170,000 Russian troops are deployed in the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad urban area, attempting to conduct offensive actions with the aim of occupying Pokrovsk."

Photo: Kostiantyn Liberov

But numbers is not the only key factor, but also the tactics used. Oleksandr Kovalenko describes in detail the mechanism of infiltration used by the Russians in in place of the failed tactics of “meat grinder” and mechanized assaults.

“To briefly explain the Russian tactics, they throw small groups into the city, mostly into the gray zones... These are small squads of two to four soldiers or even individual fighters who disperse among blocks, alleys, and streets. They try to sit out in private houses and then move on - not in order to set up permanent firing positions there... but rather to wait, seize the moment and advance deeper,” says Kovalenko.

These small squads, often disguised as civilians, are extremely hard to detect and neutralize in urban areas. And their movement is supported by another key element - FPV drones, which the enemy uses there unconventionally.

“The Russians are saving weight for the sake of more capacious batteries. Thanks to this, the drones can fly longer and lower, identifying the location of Ukrainian firing points and positions. The main purpose of these FPVs is not only to spot fire... but above all to create a map of routes circumventing our positions. In this way, small enemy sabotage groups avoid direct clashes, bypass Ukrainian troops and advance deeper into the city,” explains Kovalenko.

It is this combination (small groups + reconnaissance drones) that allowed the enemy to “seep” into the city.

Pavlo Lakiychuk complements the tactical picture with a strategic one: the Russians have thrown enormous forces into this sector, desperately needing a success already reported to Putin.

“Even z-bloggers criticize Gerasimov (Chief of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, – ed.), exposing the lies of this “commander”. So what should they do now? First of all, these false reports must be confirmed. That is why maximum efforts were made in these areas,” Lakiychuk says.

He notes that the Russians’ initial plan to surround the urban area of Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad had failed. “The 51st Russian Army, which was advancing from the north, divided its focus to pursue two goals simultaneously... one was to capture Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad from the north, and the other was to break through Ukrainian defensive lines behind Kostyantynivka and Druzhkivka.

Now, according to Lakiychuk, three Russian armies are concentrated around Pokrovsk: “In the south there is the Second Army... In the north there is the 51st, which is where the main focus is currently directed... And the 8th Army is also operating there. And if you add to this an improvised... reserve of marine brigades, it becomes clear what might has been accumulated there.”

Oleksandr Musienko explains the consequences of this pressure: “Over the past few days and weeks, the adversary has won some tactical gains, indeed. Russian troops have entered the outskirts of Pokrovsk and into Pokrovsk itself, their SRGs are operating there. But the Russian military is not currently in control of all of Pokrovsk, there are no encirclements there.”

Special forces insertion: how Ukraine is responding

In response to the critical situation, Ukraine has resorted to extraordinary measures. In Pokrovsk, not only reinforcements of regular military were noticed, but also elite units of the Defense Forces, including members of senior military command.

According to Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrsky, a complex operation to oust the Russian occupiers is underway in the city, which involves the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine (GUR), the Special Operations Forces of Ukraine (SSO) and the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).

It is known that the head of the GUR, Kyrylo Budanov has arrived to the area to be personally present and directly in control of the situation. There were even reports of GUR special forces being inserted into the northern industrial zone of Pokrovsk via U.S.-made UH-60 Black Hawk helicopters. The GUR’s report was extremely brief, saying "Coordinated work is ongoing... The goal is to protect the logistical routes of Ukrainian troops and contain enemy advances."

The media immediately dubbed it a “counteroffensive.” However, experts call for accuracy in wording.

Oleksandr Kovalenko believes that this is not exactly a counteroffensive in itself: “I cannot comment on the work done by units of the GUR, the SBU, or the Special Operations Forces in the Pokrovsk sector. But resistance is ongoing – and it is robust enough... The tactic of rapid insertions of special forces is being used, which indicates the quality and professionalism of the Ukrainian forces involved.”

At the same time, Oleksandr Musienko believes that some elements of a counteroffensive operation are visible: “You probably saw the reports from the British media outlet The Economist and the Institute for the Study of War saying that Ukrainian forces are counterattacking in the Pokrovsk area. This is true... Active defense is working, there is a certain plan... aimed to contain the enemy and push it back and thus bolster our control over this area.”

This photo from the frontline shows Oleksandr Syrsky alongside the GUR Chief, General Kyrylo Budanov  Photo: SIRSKY / Telegram

Pavlo Lakiychuk gives another reason for why elite special forces were needed to reinforce regular forces, saying this is a direct response to the new Russian tactics.

“Here we must take into account that, unlike previous battles (for Bakhmut, for Avdiivka), the Russians have learned this lesson and are actually operating in the format of assault units, like special forces, in small groups... Urban combat requires the involvement of highly qualified special forces. And the fact that both the SSO and the GUR special forces were redeployed to Pokrovsk along a number of other special units... indicates that the battles in the city will continue and their outcome is hard to predict,” Lakiychuk says.

He explains that the tactic of using groups of two or three in urban battles requires high coordination from the enemy, but to counter it, the equal, if not higher level of coordination is needed. The chaotic “vinaigrette” in the city requires the Defense Forces to implement new combat tactics.

“That is why the special forces were thrown into there... A squad of 11 troops from the Main Intelligence Directorate of the Ministry of Defense, who were preparing for the operation, was ridiculed by the Russians, saying, “Is this what Ukrainians call an assault?” No, Ukrainians do not call it an assault. Ukrainians know that this is only one of the elements. These are 11 people, a special forces squad. Such squads are numerous there, they are well prepared to conduct this type of combat operations,” the expert emphasizes.

Thus, the presence of Budanov and his special forces is not a political gesture, but a military necessity arising from the operation switching to the format of high-tech battles of small groups in dense urban areas.

It is important to emphasize that, in addition to special forces, other units of the Defense Forces hold the defense of Pokrovsk. “Our 425th assault regiment is operating inside Pokrovsk, the greatest load today is on them. I would also like to thank the 35th and 38th brigades, they are also performing tasks in this direction, the 68th Separate Ranger Brigade, the 32nd and 155th brigades,” President Zelensky said in one of his regular evening addresses.

The best-case scenario and potential risks

What is the battle of Pokrovsk going to end up with? Experts are considering several scenarios, and they differ radically, especially in terms of the consequences of Pokrovsk falling to Russian control.

Oleksandr Kovalenko outlines two main scenarios. The best-case scenario: “We will be able to stabilize the situation and get the opportunity to surround individual Russian units. This is a realistic prospect for success even now as the situation is challenging, but not hopeless.”

The worst-case scenario involves the enemy seizing full control over Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad. But what’s next? Kovalenko does not believe the Russian troops will be able to push into the Dnipropetrovsk region: “The enemy advancing along the M-30 highway towards the Dnipropetrovsk region, in particular Pavlohrad, is a possibility, but I believe in it less. I suppose they will most likely remain within the boundaries of the Donetsk region... and try to shift their focus ... to step up the offensive on Dobropillya... They will simultaneously concentrate part of their forces on Druzhkivka, that is, their priority target is the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk agglomeration.”

This opinion is fully shared by Pavlo Lakiychuk. He also believes that the threat to Pavlohrad is exaggerated. “Some are now raising concerns that if the Russians capture Pokrovsk, they will move on to Pavlohrad, to the Dnipropetrovsk region. I do not agree with this at all, because we have already created defensive lines there. But, strictly speaking, this is not the goal pursued by the Russian occupiers. Their first target is the cities along the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Sloviansk axis in the north. In case they manage to capture Pokrovsk... they will try to approach Kostyantynivka from behind Ukrainian defense lines.

However, Oleksandr Musienko offers a radically different, more alarming forecast regarding the direction of the enemy’s main strike. He believes that Russia needs Pokrovsk precisely as a logistical hub for advancing westward. “Pokrovsk is one of the key centers of the Donetsk region. Highways and railroad routes pass there, and if the enemy manages to take control of the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad urban area, Russia could prepare for an advance deeper the Dnipropetrovsk region. For now, this scenario is perhaps even more likely than the enemy moving north towards the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration,” Musienko believes.

This discrepancy in expert forecasts only underscores the importance of Pokrovsk as a strategic stronghold. The loss of Pokrovsk would open up several extremely dangerous operational directions for the enemy all at once.

Conclusion

The battle of Pokrovsk is ongoing. Contrary to panic reports, the city is not surrounded, but has turned into a “gray zone” of chaotic urban battles, a “vinaigrette”, where Ukrainian forces and Russian SRGs are fighting for every street. Logistics are critically complicated for either side.

Russia has thrown huge forces into this sector, shifting from the tactic of “meat grinder” and mechanized assaults to “smart” infiltration by small groups supported by reconnaissance drones. This allowed them to infiltrate the city.

Ukraine responded with an unprecedented special operation involving the GUR, SSO and SBU. The goal is to pursue “active defense” aimed to knock out the enemy with counterattacks, secure logistical routes and inflict maximum losses on the occupiers, forcing them to take an operational pause.

The situation remains extremely challenging, but there is room for solutions that can change the situation. The final word in the battle of Pokrovsk is yet to be said.

Myroslav Liskovych, Kyiv