Russia forming reserves to sustain ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine - ISW

The Russian military command appears to be forming reserves capable of sustaining ongoing offensive operations in Ukraine, but these reserves are unlikely to be able to function as cohesive large-scale penetration or exploitation formations this year.

That's according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), Ukrinform reports.

According to analysts, it is unclear what kind of "strategic reserve" Russia is forming based on open-source reporting but known Russian manpower and material limitations suggest that Russia will likely not commit these "strategic reserves" as a cohesive formation to fighting in Ukraine but will instead use them as a manpower pool to replenish losses along the frontline.

According to ISW, Russia's "powerful strategic reserves" could in theory be capable of serving as a first-echelon, penetration force or second-echelon exploitation force, capable of conducting large-scale mechanized assaults into Ukrainian defensive lines and making operationally significant advances if they were fully equipped and properly trained.

ISW forecasts that Russia will not develop a strategic reserve that can serve in such capacities.

The report notes that The formation of additional reserves would likely allow the Russian military to backfill losses in Ukraine without taking a significant operational pause between Russia's ongoing localized offensive efforts this spring and Russia's anticipated summer 2024 offensive effort, which ISW previously assessed Russian forces are attempting to avoid despite difficult weather and terrain conditions.