Think tank explains Russian media gaffe over “withdrawal” of troops from Kherson region

Russian state-run media on Monday published and later retracted a report about the "regrouping" of Russian forces from the left (east) bank of the Dnipro in Kherson region, which could be part of an information operation aimed at forcing the Ukrainian Army to underestimate available Russian manpower in the area.

That’s according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) think tank, Ukrinform reports.

"Ukrainian forces are very unlikely to make any operational-level decisions based on limited media reports of a Russian regrouping, however, and if the reports are a part of an information operation, they will likely fail to deceive the Ukrainian command," the summary reads.

In addition, analysts consider it unlikely that an outside source posing as the Russian Ministry of Defense would give the Russian state media information about the "regrouping" of forces on the left bank in Kherson region, as several Russian sources have suggested.

"It is very unlikely that an outside actor posing as the Russian MoD could deceive Russian state media outlets as Russian state media is closely connected to Russian government bodies including the Russian MoD," experts believe.

Regardless of the reasons and circumstances of the reports of the Russian state media, the reaction to them shows that the developments in Kherson region are difficult to cover in the Russian information space, ISW concluded.

“Events in Kherson Oblast continue to be highly neuralgic in the pro-war information space and emphasizes that the Russian media space still has not coalesced around a singular rhetorical line about what is happening on the east bank of the Dnipro,” the report says.

As reported, Russian news agencies RIA Novosti and TASS reported on Monday that the Russian Ministry of Defense had decided to move troops “to more favorable positions east of the Dnipro” in Kherson region. Both agencies later retracted the report. Ukraine’s Defense Ministry referred to the reports as an act of provocation.

The report has been edited to highlight the version of a deliberate disinformation spin aimed to catch the Ukrainian forces off guard.