Russia unlikely to be able to form combat-ready formations in Belarus - British intelligence

The transfer of Russian troops to Belarus is likely of a demonstrative nature, being aimed at pushing Ukraine to diverting part of its forces to the northern border.

That’s according to the British Defense Ministry's report citing intelligence assessments, Ukrinform wrote.

“On 14 October 2022, Belarussian president Aleksandr Lukashenko said that 70,000 Belarusian troops and up to 15,000 Russians would be involved in a new Russian-Belarussian Group of Forces. On 15 October 2022, the Belarussian authorities released a video claiming to show the arrival of Russian troops in Belarus. However, to date it is unlikely that Russia has actually deployed a significant number of extra troops into Belarus,” the report reads.

The intelligence agency notes that Russia is “unlikely to generate combat-ready formations of the claimed size: its forces are committed in Ukraine.”

“The Belarussian military highly likely maintains minimal capability to undertake complex operations,” the report notes.

The British Defense Ministry sees the announcement as an attempt “to demonstrate Russian-Belarussian solidarity and to convince Ukraine to divert forces to guard the northern border.”